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Mounting worries are present regarding the possibility of armed conflict between Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as aggressive rhetoric has intensified in the past few weeks.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has sparked a fierce war of words.

The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in last year that his government's access to the sea was an vital issue, statements that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Relations between the two countries have regularly been difficult. After a long-standing battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a long Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, rendering it landlocked.

In 1998, a border war started in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Recent Comments from Ethiopian Officials

Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed ownership of Eritrean southern port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the boundary - and hinted at the wish to take it by force.

Recently, the Prime Minister said the country's "mistake" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrea secession would be "rectified soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "through military action".

Eritrean Response to the Threats

In the face of persistent challenges from Ethiopian officials, Asmara's position has been confined to short statements on social media from Communications Head Yemane G..

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for maritime entry describing it as "dangerous" and a "harmful plan" of "expansionism" – a policy of reclaiming previous domains.

Eritrean authorities alerted on mid-September that efforts to legitimise "flagrant aggression" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Movements on the Ground

So far, there are no reports of significant troop deployments in the boundary zones between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, state television has shown completion events of numerous trainees at different defense facilities.

The director of personnel division of the defense force, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an conversation that the army was in a "reliable position" as "numerous of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Historical Origins of the Conflict

For over fifty years from 1890, the territory was ruled by Italian colonisers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the British administration before becoming a integrated region of Ethiopia.

However in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this agreement and Eritrea became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended armed struggle occurred, ending with the government's loss in 1991. Sovereignty was then approved by Eritreans in a referendum in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they disagreed over the specific demarcation of their shared boundary, resulting in conflict in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the neighbors continued at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The two endorsed a announcement that the war was over – a action that gained Abiy the international recognition.

The two governments were then cooperators in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 internal conflict in Tigray.

Yet diplomatic connections have later worsened anew.